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ECOSPECTIVE: Peak oil – worry now
Doomsayers are those who say there is no point in doing anything, "it's to late," or "we can't help anyway." The environmentalists are actually the most optimistic people on earth. We believe that we can change things. We believe that the world can be a better place if we actually make an effort, and we are happy to tell anyone who will listen that there is still hope for humanity's future, we just need to adjust our thinking and actions. Conservation of resources is preservation of the species. For example, peak oil. Most of us understand the results of peak oil. It isn't when we run out of oil, it's when demand is higher then production. It's called Hubbert peak theory and has been around since Mr. Hubbert used it to accurately predict America's oil production peak between 1965 and 70. Peak oil is reached when we can no longer pull as much out of the ground as the world demands. At that point the national oil reserves are used make up the shortfall until they are quickly depleted. This is followed by a massive jump in oil prices, as nations that produce oil cut exports to keep their own needs filled. Then our economy, that we have allowed to become dependant on this single finite resource, suddenly and abruptly changes. This single resource, that gets us to work, our product to market, our groceries to the store, and is the prime ingredient in every plastic item we own or use, becomes rationed, or replaced. But what efforts, real efforts are being made to replace our dependency on oil? Almost none. Why? Because instead of listening to the optimistic environmentalists, who are telling us solutions, we and our government are listening to the true doomsayers who tell us there is nothing else, oil is the only way and there is no other option. Of course there are also the overly optimistic oil experts such as Chevron engineer Jeff Hatlen, who says, "Yes, there are finite resources in the ground, but you never get to that point." You never reach a finite point? I must have missed that lesson in math class. Where do we stand today with oil prices double what they were at this time last year? The most optimistic estimations of peak production forecast it will happen between 2020 and 2040, remember we need to implement any changes 20 years in advance to be non-disruptive. According to the US-based Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual report. 2030 Oil requirements will be 37% higher the 2006 at our current growth. In 2005 the Wall Street Journal published findings that between 2001 and 2025, cars and trucks will cause almost 75% of the increase in oil consumption by India and China. So what about production and reserves? Well, most nations will tell you there is plenty of oil left, and gallons of reserves, but how are the measuring the reserves? Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Iran, and Iraq all more then doubled their national reserves between 1987 and 88 – but no related exploration data upholds this sudden discovery. Were these barrels of oil misplaced? All 161 billion of them? Left in someone's garage and forgotten? Or are they new estimates based on existing wells? Or are they just meaningless numbers based on the idea that "if there is oil in place A maybe there's oil in place B." The world's second largest oil field, the Burgan field in Kuwait, peaked in November, 2005. In March of 2006 Mexico declared that its Cantarell Field was reaching depletion. And according to experts the largest oil field in the world, responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years, has peaked. And last week at the G8 summit in Japan there was a request from the foreign ministers for oil producers to pump faster, to stabilize the price of gas and by relation food. Today we have to look at the alternatives, electric and hydrogen engines, the Zen Car, mass transit, biofuels, to ease our dependency on oil, because in my math class you do reach a finite point. It's just a matter of when. So if someone asks, "When should I worry about peak oil?" the answer is "Yesterday." -- -- -- -- Daniel O'Neail is a London political figure, environmentalist, and public speaker. Opinions are those of the author. Contact Daniel by e-mail (see link). E-MAIL: Daniel O'Neail |
| The problem, Daniel, is not that Canadians are unaware of the problems facing us. The vast majority of Candians knows that we are threatened by climate change and a lack of renewable energy. The problem is that we accept a lack of leadership from our government. We need to demand better from our MPs (regardless of political party) or throw them out of office. |
| By: Grady on 06/17/2008 |
| Sir; I am a retired petroleum geologist/geophysicist I find no fault in your analysis except its optimism, in a world of finite resources, population will adjust to the resource base. In addition to peak oil we are probably witnessing peak population. 10 calories of fossil fuels to deliver 1 calorie of food to the table. Please do further research into hydrogen it has almost no potential as a replacement fuel and is in fact an illusion. The only practical source of hydrogen now is natural gas. Steam reforming gives you a fuel that represents a significant energy loss and is extremely difficult to handle. We must learn to do with less, considerably less. We will either do this rationally or face a catastrophic collapse of civilization as we know it. There is unfortunately no substitute for fossil fuel at our present levels of consumption let alone projected levels. Cordially, John Chewning |
| By: john chewning on 06/17/2008 |
| The problem with Canada and anything to do with oil, especially regarding gas prices here, is that our gov't receives a PERCENTAGE instead of FLAT TAX for their share in ripping us right off. So, as long as the hogs get fatter and the blatant gouging of our leaders and business world is allowed why in heck would they EVER consider what they are doing to mine and your environment? It goes against their very grain of their livelihoods. Looking for other means of energy goes against their cheque book. That's it....the almighty dollar. There's nothing else. Thanks for caring about our earth, but it doesn't pay. |
| By: pessy on 06/17/2008 |
| john chewning said: "Sir; I am a retired petroleum geologist/geophysicist I find no fault in your analysis except its optimism, in a world of finite resources, population will adjust to the resource base. In addition to peak oil we are probably witnessing peak population. 10 calories of fossil fuels to deliver 1 calorie of food to the table. Please do further research into hydrogen it has almost no potential as a replacement fuel and is in fact an illusion. The only practical source of hydrogen now is natural gas. Steam reforming gives you a fuel that represents a significant energy loss and is extremely difficult to handle. We must learn to do with less, considerably less. " He didn't say that people could keep using as much energy as they do now. Where do you get the idea that's what he is saying? "The problem, Daniel, is not that Canadians are unaware of the problems facing us. The vast majority of Canadians knows that we are threatened by climate change and a lack of renewable energy. The problem is that we accept a lack of leadership from our government. We need to demand better from our MPs (regardless of political party) or throw them out of office. " People need to quit waiting around for leadership while doing one thing instead of getting together and making the changes they can make by themselves. Leadership is good but to sit around waiting for it when it's questionable it will come in time while one can do something oneself is stupid and going to hurt. |
| By: mike3 on 06/17/2008 |
| I personally believe in peak oil and that it is here. But there are other factors to consider when talking about the subject, in terms of our world economy. While oil is a main ingredient in running nearly everything. There are still other factors. This article I was reading explains this idea. Its called Energy Q&A Part I: Peak Oil and Oil Price Spikes and really gave me a better idea what peak oil really means. Its more than just what what peak oil, the issue is what it means for the world. Check it out. Thanks! |
| By: PaulHunt on 06/21/2008 |
| Dan Usually your columns have a local emphasis so not sure why you did not include interview comments from a member of Post-Carbon London, This group has had a focus on peak oil for a few years but is still a relatively new group compared to other environmental efforts. During our local election specific questions to all candidates were circulated and responses were posted. Members have held lectures, film showings on peak oil specific issues, frequent discussion nights and a roundtable to gain community input. Last spring Mitch Brogan, a London member had opportunity to meet Al Gore when he visited London and has since taken the training and shared it with community. In addition, last fall, 10 workshops were held in various neighbourhoods to gain a creative grassroots response to solutions to the broad issues surrounding peak oil concerns-particularly towards a local energy plan. This year, Post-Carbon London is starting work on a “Resilient Community” approach to planning for London’s future. Based on Richard Heinberg’s April 2008 proposal to plan community resilience strategies in the face of challenges such as peak oil, global warming, and economic downturn, the approach builds on last year's local workshops, and carries it forward. Post-Carbon London is part of a global effort, the Relocalization Network. |
| By: Diane on 07/19/2008 |
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